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Bitcoin (BTC) can hit $10 million per coin or more as it eats 25% of the global wealth, new analysis has concluded.
In a blog post released on Feb. 16, fund manager and Bitcoin expert advisor Jesse Myers revealed his own “outrageous” BTC price target.
Myers: Bitcoin could 500x over the coming decades
Bitcoin may struggle with “brutal” volatility, but hodlers and critics alike should be in no doubt about its long-term price trajectory, Myers says.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s value proposition, he argues that Bitcoin’s ability to appreciate over time means that it is all but destined to suck in value from other asset classes.
Among other reasons, this is because an asset with such appreciation characteristics and increasing scarcity allows it to fulfill the role of “digital gold.”
“Bitcoin has an unthinkable property: it gets more valuable over time. Gold is good at storing purchasing power, but Bitcoin grows purchasing power,” the blog post reads.
“Value stored in Bitcoin becomes worth more over time because of Bitcoin’s design of increasing scarcity – you just have to outlast the (admittedly brutal) volatility along the way.”
Such an idea is not new — it forms the core thesis of many popular takes on Bitcoin, among them Saifedean Ammous’ seminal book, “The Bitcoin Standard.”
Getting down to the numbers, meanwhile, Myers calculates the global allocation into BTC as 0.05% of available wealth as of 2023 — $400 billion.
“That’s 1/2000th of global asset value,” the post continues.
“With that in mind, we have to ask ourselves an important question: when Bitcoin’s mechanics continue to play out (causing it to continue appreciating reliably in value every 4 years), will more than 0.05% of the world’s capital eventually realize it wants to be in an asset like that? I think the only logical conclusion is ‘yes.’”
That realization, Myers forecasts, means that $10 million per bitcoin should be a “conservative estimate.”
“Overall, my personal assessment of where the ceiling is for Bitcoin is simple… it’s very high. Almost to the point that I’m embarrassed to show my analysis,” he concludes.
“My conservative estimates suggest an outrageous full potential for Bitcoin’s price: $10m/Bitcoin, in today’s dollars. To put this another way, I believe Bitcoin’s full potential is to eat ~25% of the world’s value… while today it constitutes just 0.05%. That’s absurd. That means that I believe Bitcoin could 500x over the coming decades, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms.”
Macro asset comparison graphic (screenshot). Source: Jesse Myers/ Substack
ARK Bitcoin bear case now $258,000 by 2030
“Absurd” or not, Myers is far from alone in eyeing sky-high Bitcoin price valuations coming true in the coming decades.
Related: Bitcoin must leverage $1T central bank liquidity to beat sellers — Research
Some are even calling for the $1 million mark to hit before the end of this one — ARK Invest, for example, continued to stick by that very prediction throughout the 2022 bear market declines.
In its Big Ideas 2023 outlook released at the end of January, the investment giant described long-term opportunity as strengthening.
The firm’s bear case for 2030, it revealed, still puts BTC/USD at $258,000 by the end of the decade.
Bitcoin growth forecast data (screenshot). Source: ARK Invest
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