en.cryptonomist.ch 1 h Reading time: ~5 m
According to ChatGPT, there is a 15 percent chance that bitcoin’s performance could drop 99.999 percent by 2035 and become irrelevant.
This was discovered by Coinbase’s head of trading operations, Conor Grogan.
GPT is generally a big fan of Bitcoin; more skeptical of altcoins and their staying power pic.twitter.com/E9sUQ8AVvD
— Conor (@jconorgrogan) April 30, 2023
Grogan commented by saying that GPT is a big fan of bitcoin, but is more skeptical of altcoins and their resilience.
For Dogecoin, for example, he estimates a 45% chance of something similar ever happening by 2035, and for Litecoin the estimate is 35%.
For Ethereum, on the other hand, it is 20%, or only slightly more than bitcoin.
- ChatGPT’s predictions of bitcoin and crypto market trends
- ChatGPT’s predictions for the price of Bitcoin
- ChatGPT’s predictions for the future of altcoins
ChatGPT’s predictions of bitcoin and crypto market trends
It should be noted that to get these results, Grogan used a jailbreak for GPT that he calls JamesGPT (Just Accurate Markets Estimation System), which allows for future predictions on any topic.
At the same time, however, he questions whether such a tool is really useful for researchers, especially for uncovering biases.
I found a jailbreak for GPT I’m calling JAMES
-Predicts the future for ANY topic (even guesses when people might die based on its training set)
-Quantitatively assesses confidence on any topic (including conspiracy theories)
-May help researchers better find bias and align AI? pic.twitter.com/jqTcNbCT2d
— Conor (@jconorgrogan) April 30, 2023
In fact, as far as is known, such predictions cannot be considered reliable at all. It is not even clear how ChatGPT formulates them.
What is known is that JamesGPT induces GPT to “weigh” its beliefs on various topics, although the results provided may not be unambiguous and may change slightly based on changes in the markets.
Grogan says that he has asked GPT4 the exact same question 100 times and gotten answers that are actually quite consistent, with a standard deviation of less than 10 percent.
What remains interesting, however, is the fact that ChatGPT probably extracts this data from the web, or at least from sources he considers reliable.
So his predictions could at least be seen as a kind of “consensus average” of sources he considers authoritative.
ChatGPT’s predictions for the price of Bitcoin
One should not be fooled by the way the question is posed. In fact, to correctly interpret ChatGPT’s answer regarding Bitcoin‘s implosion in the next 12 years, one must consider not so much that he predicts a 15 percent probability of this happening, but more importantly that he actually considers it 85 percent impossible.
This is why, according to Grogan, GPT is a big fan of bitcoin.
It must be said that such a low estimated probability of Bitcoin’s failure in the medium/long term is quite common, especially among Bitcoiners, although for maximalists it is probably even lower, if not close to zero.
Thus, ChatGPT is not a bitcoin maximalist, but seems to have similar “ideas” as bitcoiners.
In light of the above considerations regarding the method by which ChatGPT makes these predictions, there seem to be two explanations for this line of reasoning.
Either ChatGPT includes primarily bitcoiners among the sources considered authoritative regarding bitcoin, or indeed, by now even in the world of mainstream finance, the hypothesis of a real implosion of bitcoin is considered marginal.
The fact is that other similar initiatives have yielded similar results, i.e. there now seems to be a widespread belief among experts that it is very unlikely that bitcoin will actually implode within a decade or so.
Therefore, the widespread consensus is probably precisely that of a rather low probability of implosion, though by no means non-existent.
ChatGPT’s predictions for the future of altcoins
The argument does not change much for Ethereum, whose consensus seems to believe at 80% that its failure in the next dozen years is impossible.
For Dogecoin, on the other hand, only 55% believe that its total failure is impossible, with a 45% probability that such a catastrophic scenario could actually happen.
It should not be forgotten that a -99.999% is equivalent to a virtual total reset in value, because it means, for example, a move to 100,000 to 1, i.e. a 100,000-fold reduction in price.
For bitcoin, this would mean a price below $0.3, a level that was crossed in 2010, the first year of trading on exchanges, and has never been touched since. In other words, it would mean a return to its original irrelevance.
For Ethereum, it would mean a descent to $0.018, a level it has never been at, and which would be far lower than even the $0.4 of 2015.
So while there seems to be no consensus about a possible failure of bitcoin within the next dozen years, and not much more about Ethereum, as far as altcoins are concerned, the argument is different.
It should be emphasized, however, that there is in fact no certainty that ChatGPT’s predictions actually reflect the true consensus of analysts considered authoritative, and furthermore, these predictions could easily change over time.
However, one way to try to get a sense of how reliable they are would be to ask him to predict price movements in the short term, or even better in the medium term, so that in a few months, or at most a few years, we can then see how reliable or not his predictions actually turn out to be.