dailyhodl.com 3 h Reading time: ~2 m
Widely followed quantitative analyst PlanB says that Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to experience explosive growth heading into next year’s halving event.
The pseudonymous quant analyst tells his 1.8 million Twitter followers that Bitcoin will likely follow the stock-to-flow (S2F) model and, before the year’s end, soar more than 588% from its current value of $29,069, reaching $200,000.
According to PlanB, Bitcoin’s scheduled halving in April 2024, an event that slashes BTC miners’ reward in half, will be the catalyst to send the king crypto to new all-time highs.
“2024 halving cycle is going to be very interesting. Or 2022 was an outlier and 2023+ will revert to S2F model line. Or there is a non-linear relationship between S2F/halving and price, diminishing return. IMO (in my opinion) 2022 was an outlier and exponential growth will continue until ~50% adoption. Time will tell.”
Traders have traditionally used the S2F model to predict the price action of commodities like gold and silver. The model predicts the performance of an asset based on the theory that the price increases as the asset becomes more scarce.
PlanB also predicts that Bitcoin’s value will be sent higher through wider adoption of the digital asset. He estimates there are just one million individual holders of Bitcoin while noting there are 56 million fiat millionaires in the world.
“I do not count people who hold paper bitcoin on exchanges as hodlers (they are more traders). So if we look at people that hold real on-chain bitcoin, there are only 3.5 million BTC addresses with more than 0.1 BTC on it… and many hodlers have multiple addresses so that number probably converts to say ~1 million hodlers.”
56 million fiat millionaires in the world, 1 million Bitcoin addresses with more than 1 BTC. We are early.”
In making his case for Bitcoin’s growth, the quant analyst also notes that when liquidity is injected into the markets, Bitcoin outperforms assets like gold and stocks.
“Global liquidity (especially central bank money printing after [Global Financial Crisis of 2008] and [Covid 19 stimulus checks]) is the tide that lifts all boats. But some boats got lifted much higher!
Last 10 years:
– Gold (yellow line): flat
– Stocks (blue): 3X
– Bitcoin (candles): 10,000X”
PlanB has previously predicted Bitcoin will soar to $532,000 after its 2024 halving.